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Some notes from [Fannie Mae's Doug Duncan explores the future of housing]

Some notes from Fannie Mae's Doug Duncan explores the future of housing

  • Demographics factors
  • Millenials are bigger population than boomers than Gen Z
  • Having families later. Having babies later
  • John Burns - Book on demographics
  • Real Estate - They want to talk to a other person
  • Pace of household formation, differences between countries with demographic replacement rate
  • Consumers want to speak to people but would like efficiency through technology. Make the process simpler and easier
  • Millenials saddled with other debt and credit standards .. wallet share study towards housing for millenials. Hence, the share of wallet for housing is at a historic low
  • Recession Risk - 2019 expect economy to grow at 2.25% and lower than 2% afterwards. This is the longest expansion in economy. Now expect economy to slow. Fed stopped increasing rates and expect to cut rates in Sep and Dec.
  • Home Sales in 2019 ~ same as 2018. Expect to slow in 2020. Expect unemployment to raise in 2020 possibly due to shocks (trade / tariff, etc). Expect recession to be modest. Unemployment possibly to increase to ~ 7.0%-7.5%. Housing actually strengthened in the 2000 recession. Housing supports consumer spending / consumption (drapes, lights, etc)
  • Consumer confidence at high in 2019. Expectations are significantly lower
  • Since the Trump election, the share of people who say are on the right track is consitently more than 50%. The low income people have seen their job and income growth
  • Fannie Mae survey data is neutral to political environment (tries to)